An Oscar Education – Predictions Updated

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A funny thing happened when I finally saw An Education. I realized that the film, with some of the strongest female characters your likely to see on film this or any year, was going to be a hard sell to the Academy. Carey Mulligan’s role doesn’t fit the mold that Oscar has developed: either deglam or play a famous female figure. If you do both (see: Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose) you get the gold. If you do neither, well, you’re Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada.

At least that’s how it used to be.

When I wrote my first Oscar post of the season, I mentioned that this year we could finally see a female director win the Best Director statue. I was talking about The Hurt Locker‘s Kathryn Bigelow, who I have since removed from the top prediction in exchange for Jason Reitman, director of Up in the Air. Many Oscar-watchers would suggest that a better choice may have been Lee Daniel for Precious: Base on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, with Precious is being touted as the frontrunner for Best Picture. But like An Education, Precious could suffer from old biases.

I’ve taken a very conservative approach to the most recent list of predictions, putting Up in the Air out front in the Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor races. If I’ve learned anything from watching Oscar, it’s that just when you expect the Academy to change, it doesn’t.

Maybe this year will be different. Maybe this year a film about an impoverished black girl from New York’s inner city will win Best Picture. Maybe a female or African-American director will win the Oscar. Maybe a film about a young woman’s experiences in the 1960s will lead to a Best Actress trophy for its star. In 2009, I wouldn’t bet against it.

We’ll know more in early 2010 when the guilds chime in. Until then, I’m pulling back a bit. It’s all Up in the Air right now.

UPDATED: TFC Journal’s 2009-2010 Oscar predictions.