Early Oscar Contenders: Slumdog Millionaire V. Milk?
During the 2008 presidential election, the underdog story Rocky was referenced over and over again. Sen. Hillary Clinton compared herself to the Best Picture winner’s central character as she tried to win the Democratic nomination. Sen. John McCain briefly used Rocky III‘s “Eye of the Tiger” as a campaign theme, only to have a member from the band Survivor request that he stop using the song. Both candidates may have lost to Barack Obama, just as Rocky lost to Apollo Creed, but we may yet have use for the Rocky comparison.
When Rocky won Best Picture, it beat films like Network, Taxi Driver and All the King’s Men. They were better films. Much better, in fact. But in a year that saw the end of the Nixon era and the election of Jimmy Carter the mood of the country may well have contributed to Rocky‘s sweeping victory.
The question this year may be this: Now that Obama has won the election, will the Academy abandon the dark dramas it has awarded in the past few years for a more uplifting movie?
I told a friend the other day that if Obama wins the election, Slumdog Millionaire—a film about a teenager from the slums of Mumbai who goes on Who Wants to be a Millionaire to win the heart of the girl he loves–will win Best Picture. It was a bold prediction, but one thing I didn’t take into account was a victory for Prop. 8, the California ballot initiative to ban gay marriage. The LGBT rights movement is going to become a central issue confronting many Californian’s this year, and that puts Gus Van Sant’s Milk–a biographical film about the first openly gay man elected to political office in U.S. history–in play.
Neither picture is an unlikely contender. Slumdog Millionaire has Fox Searchlight behind it, while Milk looks like the crusader picture that Academy members all over themselves to honor. But the thought of the major American film award going to a British-made indie set in Mumbai or a flick about a gay-rights icon is not only unlikely, it seems impossible giving the recent awards trends.
Are they great movies? Early reviews and festival buzz indicate they are. More importantly they appear to be movies that, like Rocky, can tap into the mood of the country and be swept up in the celebration. Slumdog Millionaire was called “a bouyant hymn to life, and a movie to celebrate.” In the trailers for Milk, we hear the politician say, “You gotta give them hope.” Neither sentiment is bad in a year like not other for a country like no other. As we approach the National Board of Review announcement (set for Dec. 4), don’t be surprise if…no…when one of these two pictures takes the NBR Best Film title home and starts on the road to Oscar glory.
Two important caveats. Slumdog Millionaire may need to catch on with the public, Juno-style, in order to become a legitimate contender. Milk, on the other hand, could be victorious with a lower box office total, but it will still have to go up against the Academy’s notorious homophobia. With those things in mind, I’m still placing my bets on either Milk or Slumdog Millionaire come February.
As I stated in an earlier post, 2008 has, so far, been a weak year for movies. The likely contenders are turning out to be about as to be as viable as any of those guys who ran for the Republican presidential nomination. (Changeling and Doubt are just two recent pictures to be slain by critical swords.) For films like Slumdog Millionaire and Milk, along with potential contenders The Dark Knight and WALL-E, a Best Picture win doesn’t look like a long-shot anymore. We just gotta have hope.
Oscar Predictions Updated Nov. 8, 2008.
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