Oscar Predictions updated – Now it feels like a race

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In August, if you would have asked Oscarwatchers whether or not Inglourious Basterds would be a frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar, you would have heard a chorus of “NOs.” What a difference a week makes.

After BFCA, HFPA and most shockingly the SAG all nominated Quentin Tarantino’s masterpiece for their top honor, it’s safe to say Inglourious Basterds is solidly in the Best Picture race. The Hurt Locker, too, is sweeping nearly every critics group award, making the film a lock for a Best Picture nomination and putting Kathryn Bigelow out in front in Best Director race.

Then there’s Up in the Air, a film that seems destined to win Best Picture but curiously missed out on an Ensemble nomination from the SAG. All its primaries grabbed SAG nominations, but its weak supporting cast (compared to the nominated films) may have hurt it in the end. 

Precious is still in the race, as it continues to receive accolades. So is Nine, which also nabbed a nomination from the 3 major precursor groups this week. And Avatar stormed onto the scene yesterday when it fulfilled every promise director James Cameron made.  It appears to be headed for a $80 million dollar opening weekend. If it continues to pull in big numbers at the box office, we might have to start taking an Avatar win seriously.

Most years, we’d be down to two pictures at this point in the race. Last year and the year before that, the race was over before Christmas. To have so many real contenders, not just for the nomination but also for the win, is exciting.

Of course this makes finding a theme for my Oscar party very, very hard.

UPDATED: TFC Journal’s 2009-2010 Oscar predictions.