The Contenders: It’s A Three-Way In The Best Picture Oscar Race

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For the first time in my Oscar watching years (17!), something strange is happening in the Best Picture race: There’s a legit three-way race for the top prize between American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity . While most of the acting prizes have settled, with the exception of Jennifer Lawrence vs. Lupita Nyong’o, and Alfonso Cuaron looks locked in for a Best Director win, the Best Picture far from over at the moment.

So here’s what happened. The Golden Globes gave American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave a boost, followed by another Best Picture prize for Slave at the Critics’ Choice Movie Awards.  All well and good, but The Social Network and Saving Private Ryan were in the same position as 12 Years a Slave when they lost Best Picture. Critical darlings don’t seem to have as much luck in the long run, especially ones that sweep so many of the critics groups the way all three serious movies did.

Which brought us to this past weekend. The Screen Actors Guild held it’s annual awards ceremony, and it gave the top prize, Best Ensemble, to American Hustle. In the softer years, were critical favorites like The Social Network and Saving Private Ryan lost, the Screen Actors Guild Best Ensemble award was the first sign of weakness. In both instances, the eventual Best Picture winners, and much softer films, won the SAG award.

Now, the Screen Actors Guild Awards aren’t always spot on. Inglourious Basterds, which had zero chance at Best Picture, won and so did The Help. But in both those instances, the movies that went on to win Best Picture were both filled with unknowns and character actors, no A-list stars. Using that logic, 12 Years a Slave should have won if it really was the favorite. Fassbender, Pitt, Ejiofer, Cumberbatch, Giamatti… those aren’t the names of actors people don’t know.

So American Hustle, after winning Best Ensemble, becomes the frontrunner… for a day.

Hustle‘s lead was erased yesterday when the Producers Guild presented its awards, and created more confusion in the process. The PGA Award for Theatrical Motion Picture went to both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. It’s the first time in the organization’s awards history that two movies won its top prize.

All this creates a scenario where any movie, 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle or Gravity could end up taking home Best Picture. Smart money is still on 12 Years a Slave. As I told a friend of mine, the race is really down to three awards. And if Slave wins any of the three, it wins Best Picture. First was the Screen Actors Guild, which American Hustle, again, won. Second is next weekend’s Director Guild Award, which will likely go to Gravity (if it doesn’t, then the winning film will also likely win best picture). But the third and final group to watch are the editors.

As go editors, so goes Hollywood. So if the ACE Eddies, which will be announced February 7, 2014, go to Gravity for dramatic feature and Hustle for comedic feature we can count 12 Years a Slave out. But if 12 Years a Slave wins the dramatic feature Eddie, game over.

I’m sticking with 12 Years a Slave until the DGA and ACE Eddies are handed out. In reality though, it’s very much anyone’s game.