Gelling – The 2010 Oscar Race

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Prior to this weekend, the race for Best Picture was down to four films. After the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards, it may only be down to two.

Avatar took home both Best Director and Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Globes tonight. On Friday, The Hurt Locker took Picture and Director. Sure, we say these are just critics groups. They don’t vote for Oscar. But the two awards shows have given Avatar and The Hurt Locker the momentum, very public momentum, that’s necessary to win.

The Director’s Guild of America announces its pick on Jan. 30. That group has a startlingly accurate track record when it comes to predicting the Best Picture winner, especially in the last decade. (Their love for Ang Lee, times two, being the only exceptions.) If the DGA award goes to Avatar the race is over. At that point, its momentum may be unstoppable.

Momentum is important. And if anyone ended the weekend with more momentum that he did when it started, it was Jeff Bridges. Two shows, two great speeches. The four-time Oscar nominee is on the verge of winning one of those lifetime achievement Oscars. Sorry, George, but I don’t think even a SAG win is going to help you when it comes to beating the Dude.

Who else has the momentum? Mo’Nique. Christoph Waltz. Jason Reitman for adapted screenplay. (Still think this could have been your big winner, but where was/is the campaign?) Tarantino for original, to a lesser extent. It may have taken longer than usual, but the Oscar race just got a whole lot clearer.

There is one obvious exception, of course. Meryl v. Sandra. They’ve both nailed the speeches. They’ve made the shows fun to watch. I’m hoping for a Streisand-Hepburn-style tie because I’d love to hear them both on Feb. 2.

More Oscar updates coming, but here are my seriously outdated predictions as they stood on Dec. 19. Oh, what a difference a month makes.