Final Oscar Predictions

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Best Picture

It’s been a long few months for Academy Award watchers. I don’t a remember an Oscar race that has been as heavily covered as this one. Part of the reason, of course, is that the critics came out early and aggressively for The Social Network. After the New York Film Festival’s Scott Foundas reacted to the film in August, a month before its premiere, the film and its zeitgeisty goodness became the fascination of many cinephiles.

At that point, many people made the mistake that a film so lauded couldn’t possibly lose the Oscar race. (Forgetting, maybe the Brokeback Mountain v. Crash race.) On the day of the Oscars, however, the Best Picture trophy is The King’s Speech‘s to lose. And The King’s Speech could lose, just not to The Social Network. Instead, The Fighter is a closer second.

Predicted Winner: The King’s Speech
Close Second: The Fighter

Best Director

If The King’s Speech is your Best Picture winner, then it has a lock on Best Director, right? This is were things get tricky. By predicting a David Fincher for The Social Network, you abandon the idea of a TKS sweep. But sweeps are rare, and as split as the Academy seems to be over the front-runners, I doubt that the major awards are going to fall in line for one picture. So the Best Director trophy goes to Fincher, not Tom Hooper. Unless another David swoops in for the win.

Predicted Winner: David Fincher, The Social Network
Close Second: David O. Russell, The Fighter

Best Actor

The only race of the night that’s clear cut is the Best Actor race, where TKS has no real competition from TSN or The Fighter. After Colin Firth’s Weinstein lovefest at other award shows, Harvey’s not going to let this one get away.

Predicted Winner: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech -LOCK

Best Actress

With no serious contenders from the three Oscar frontrunners, the Best Actress race appears to be, for the second year in a row, the most exciting of the evening. While it’s not as competitive as Sandra and Meryl were last year, there’s still an outside chance that Annette Bening takes the Oscar over the Black Swan‘s Natalie Portman. But there’s no real reason, as of today, to assume that this goes to anyone other than Portman

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman, The Black Swan
Close Second: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actress & Actor

The supporting acting awards are always exciting because upsets happen here often. We’ll know early on in the evening, just how much love The Fighter or TKS will see based on wins in these categories.

Going into this evening, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo are the ones to beat. That duo always seemed like Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson to me, when they were frontrunners going into the Oscars for Dreamgirls. If Bale and Leo both win, I’ll be seriously considering a The Fighter Best Picture wins until they open that final envelope. If TKS‘s Geoffrey Rush or Helena Bonham Carter win, then the sweep is on. I doubt it’s that simple, though.

Leo’s controversial campaigning turned many Oscar voters off, meaning that Bale is free and clear to nab a trophy for The Fighter without voters having to give two acting Oscars to a film that won’t win Best Picture. (It’s only happened once before, when A Streetcar Named Desire took the two supporting awards and Best Actor, and still lost Best Picture.)

So how will it pan out? Well, if the Academy is going to diversify the awards, the a 14-year-old from a Western with 8 Oscar nominations is going to have a big night.

Supporting Actress
Predicted Winner: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Close Second: Melissa Leo, The King’s Speech

Supporting Actor
Predicted Winner: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Close Second: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

In the end, I’m guessing that The King’s Speech will win 5 on its way to Best Picture. The Social Network takes 3, including Best Director.

For the full list of final Oscar predictions, check this out.