Final 2010 Oscar nomination predictions w/ screenplay guesses

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And so D-Day arrives. That of course makes March 7, V-O Day (Victory in Oscarland), but tomorrow is where the fun begins. At 8:30 8:38 a.m. ET tomorrow, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for the 82nd Academy Awards. It will be the first time in over 65 years that 10 movies will compete for the Best Picture statue.

At this point, its damn near impossible to pick all 10. We know The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Precious, Up in the Air, and Inglourious Basterds are locks.  But who else? One thing you can always count on is for the Academy to be uncool. Guessing The Hangover or Star Trek, no matter how well they did in the precursors, seems unlikely. Can Up and District 9 even make the list. I’m putting them out there because they seem like they are genuinely loved, despite their genre handicaps. An Education is likely because of the Anglo-centric nature of the Oscar voters.  Invictus is another solid production from an old stalwart. And then there’s A Serious Man, which I’m hanging on to because of its WGA and BFCA love, but wouldn’t be shocked to see replaced with anything from A Single Man to The Messenger to Julie & Julia to The Blind Side.

The male actors are locked in, as are the directors. Supporting actress is set as well, with the off chance of Penelope Cruz appearing for Nine. Supporting actor is tougher because it was a weak year. Your winner will be Christoph Waltz, undoubtedly, but who will join him? My only final chart change is putting Alfred Molina back on the list and finally, begrudgingly, removing Stanley Tucci. The Lovely Bones love just isn’t there. Can Tucci find love without it?

Actress is mostly set, with Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock leading the charge. Expect Gabourey Sidebe and Carey Mulligan to join them. But who is the fifth? Helen Mirren is a safe choice, but there’s always the chance someone else, like Mélanie Laurent or, god-willing, Tilda Swinton will replace her.

And then there’s screenplay. It’s a category where, usually, movies that don’t get love in the Best Picture field get to shine a little. That actress race will be over if either Julie & Julia or The Blind Side is nominated. I can’t see either, because, let’s face it, those weren’t “writing” movies. That’s why Avatar is off of my list, as well. Don’t be shocked to see In the Loop on get a nod though. It’s gotta get some love somewhere, right?

When the announcement comes tomorrow morning, one thing is for sure: Avatar will be your most nominated picture. Until then…

FINAL: TFC Journal’s 2010 Oscar nomination predictions.